The narrative going into this election was that Labor would be lucky to escape in tact. One Nation was supposed to be a credible threat. In fact, the Labor and LNP were going to have such a close match-up that One Nation was going to hold the balance of power in the Queensland government. They said they could get as many as eleven seats.
They were wrong.
At time of writing (early morning on the 28th of November) with almost 80% of votes counted, Labor is poised to hold a majority government, winning more seats than they did previously.
The LNP lost big time, with many of their votes going to third party candidates such as One Nation, the Greens, or the Bob Katter Party. Overall, these ‘minor’ parties did very well, disrupting the two-party system with some impressive results.
Almost everyone was surprised by the swing towards the centre left (Labor) and the lefty left (the Greens). It comes in the wake of more surprisingly lefty results for Queensland in the same-sex marriage vote. Overall, Queensland is a lot more progressive than has been assumed. Who woulda thought cane toads were capable of such things?
- Annastacia Palaszczuk now becomes the most successful female premier in Australian history. She’s won two elections.
- This was an election with brand new electorates. Some old borderlines were re-drawn. One of the major casualties was LNP heavy-weight Scott Emmerson, who was put under immense pressure from a Greens candidate. The Greens candidate is unlikely to win, but the preferences will trickle down to Labor, and they will take the seat.
- The Greens put up a big fight in South Brisbane, coming very close to toppling the Deputy Premier, Jackie Trad.
- One Nation is likely to end up with just one seat, the mining electorate of Mirani.
- One Nation’s high-profile candidate, Malcom Roberts, recently kicked out of the Australian Senate for his UK citizenship, lost out in Ipswich.
- One Nation did well, capturing almost 14% of the vote across the state. This is a huge swing since the last election, but it did no favours to the LNP. The political right ate itself this election. Some potential LNP votes went to One Nation, but often not enough to get One Nation over the top. With the conservative vote split between two parties, Labor were often left with enough to win.
- The Greens secured almost 10% of the total vote, which is up 1.3% from last election. Despite this, they’re unlikely to secure a seat.
- The Bob Katter Party secured just 2.3% of the total vote, but decidedly won two rural seats. This is a clear signal that these isolate electorates feel they are not being heard by the major parties.
This spells big trouble, yet again, for the federal LNP. Rumbles about the PM’s leadership continue. The government’s 2017 report card looks disastrous. It’s only early in the week, but by Friday, we’re likely to see the effects of this election on federal politics.
We’ll back on Friday with the news summary.
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Photo at the top from Dan Peled courtesy of Guardian News Ltd.